Kuwait: By the end of February 2023, the 11th month of the current fiscal year 2022/2023 ended with the monthly average price of Kuwaiti oil reaching $83.2 per barrel. It is $3.2 or 4 percent higher than the new hypothetical price of $80 estimated in the current budget ($65 before adjustment) and $38.2 higher than the average hypothetical price of $45 for the past fiscal year.

The average oil price of February is 4.2 percent higher than the average price of $79.9 per barrel recorded in the past fiscal year 2021/2022. According to the Ministry of Finance, the average price for February is $2.8 higher than the new budget’s parity price of $80.4 ($75 before adjustment) and without the deduction of 10 percent of revenues for the future generations’ reserve.

Kuwait is supposed to have achieved actual oil revenues of KD 1.634 billion in February. Assuming that production and prices would continue at the current level -an unrealistic assumption- Kuwait’s oil revenues for the entire current fiscal year would reach KD 26.377 billion, after deducting annual production costs pertaining to the entire current fiscal year.

It would be KD 5.056 billion higher than the estimated revenues of KD 21.321 billion for the current budget (KD 16.741 billion before adjustment). Adding KD 2.078 billion in non-oil revenues, total budget expected revenues for the current fiscal year would amount to KD 28.455 billion.

Comparing this figure with the expected expenditures of KD 23.523 billion after being altered from KD 21.949 billion, it is likely that the public budget would achieve a surplus of KD 4.932 billion for the current fiscal year 2022/2023, with oil revenues being the only decisive factor.

There is only one month left until the end of the current fiscal year, and it is not expected that there will be a significant change in the level of oil prices or the level of production, so the budget surplus is likely to stabilize at the limits of KD 5 billion, indicating a decrease of KD 5.5 billion versus the surplus projected by Al-Shall in June 2022, which was caused by the significant decline in the level of oil prices and production, in addition to the high level of public expenditures due to the adoption of populist legislation.